Harald Brekke: "Humanity is still in the stage of collective cognitive dissonance"

Harald Brekke is an architect with extensive experience in implementing a wide variety of projects. Since 2008, he has been working at Kjaer Global, a company that helps people, teams, and organizations from different sectors and industries understand the future. Harald Brekke explained what this means and how you can understand what doesn't exist yet ahead of his speech at the 100+ forum.

– Tell us more about the topic of your report "Conscious construction of the future". What does it mean? Is there no conscious construction now?

 – I can say with confidence that conscious construction exists now. We see how a new way of thinking is emerging in principle and in terms of construction too.

The task of our company is to monitor global trends, look at the global picture and proceed from it. At the same time, we rely on both the past and our ideas about the future. But we not only look at the past and try to predict the future, we also, I would say, learn from them. When I say "learning from the future," it may sound contradictory, but in fact we have certain tools to determine how the future may appear.

For example, we use the "trend compass". That is, we look at the current trends that dominate our field and write potential stories about the future. The main thing here, of course, is that, despite the fact that trends are difficult to predict accurately, approach this with an open mindset and be prepared for anything.

In general, architecture and construction are very well prepared to predict the future. The main thing is to be open, again. And I'll probably end with the phrase: we're not going into the future, we're creating the future. This is also important to keep in mind. This is what my report will be about.

– How exactly do you predict the future?

 – We use an approach to forecasting future trends on several planes. We are looking at the scientific plane – what technologies are developing, in which direction humanity will go. Next, we look at social trends, that is, what social structures are emerging, what changes are being observed in them.

We also look at the plane that we call the left hemisphere of the brain: the logical one. And we also look at the area of the right hemisphere, that is, at the emotional factors that exist at the present time, and how they can develop.

The last plane we look at is the spiritual one, not in terms of religion, but in terms of the meanings and values that people possess and consider important to themselves at a particular moment.

I have an atlas of trends hanging on my door. It's from 2018, so it's not the most recent. Nevertheless, it shows how this approach works. At the workshops that we hold, we constantly discuss the issues that this atlas solves. We look at all the current problems that exist in the world, at all relevant areas of development, and thus identify trends.

– What global trends can be identified now?

 – The first thing that needs to be mentioned is, of course, artificial intelligence, that is, the next generation of robotics and, in principle, technology. The second is 5G connectivity. We recently discussed it at a conference in Riga. In addition, these are new economic models, such as the circular economy. And the coronavirus and its impact on the real estate market cannot be ignored, as radical changes are taking place in connection with this virus.

From a social point of view, I must say that the concept of age has changed a lot. There is no division anymore – first school, then university, then work. Now there is such a thing as "lifelong learning". The old model is crumbling very quickly, and this will greatly affect the construction in terms of urban space development.

From an emotional point of view, it is necessary to mention coworking, coliving, that is, the trend of sharing space with other people.

A new leadership model is also emerging. There are fewer and fewer leaders who look only at the profits from their activities. We need leaders who come from a different approach, in English it's called the four–P approach: people, planet, purpose, purpose, and performance – that is, there are already indicators directly for profit, revenue, and other material indicators.

Of course, I will tell you more about all the trends that I am listing now in my presentation at the forum.

– Which cities in the world, in your opinion, are now closest to the model you advocate?

 – I guess I'll say that there is no city in which everything is close to our idea. We want people to think more systematically and constructively about the future of cities. For example, take London, which is a real urban laboratory. There are so many aspects of it that are well implemented, but there are also aspects that are implemented very, very poorly. Therefore, I think that in the case of every city, this is exactly the case: something is good, something is bad.

But speaking of cities that I'm familiar with because we've worked on projects there, I can give you the example of Copenhagen. It's a city where it's nice to live. This shows the fact that people are moving to the city, not out of it. Maybe I'm being a little subjective here, because we've worked a lot with this city.

I can also tell you about the 2015 project in Colombia, the city of Medellin. The mayor did a very good job in it. He used the following approach: he studied the problems of specific areas, looked very narrowly and then solved everything at the local level. This has brought its own results. In 2016, this city was named the most innovative in a sample of 100 cities in the world.

Oslo, for example, has done a good job in managing traffic flow in the city. Singapore has dealt well with its problems in the area of natural resource scarcity. In other words, they approached the issue of using water and buying houses wisely.

There are many examples. Again, I'm not saying that these cities have worked out well in all respects, in all indicators. I don't think there's any city that's done everything right.

– How many years and resources do you think it will take for the whole world to come to conscious construction?

 – That's a great question. I think that humanity is still in the stage of collective cognitive dissonance in terms of working together on global issues. The coronavirus has shown us very well a situation where all of humanity needs to work together.

In fact, conscious construction is an issue that is closely related to the idea that we all live on the same planet. Accordingly, everyone should work together to ensure that this planet is an acceptable place to live for everyone.

Here, of course, it is necessary to think beyond the framework of one generation. We need to think about making the planet a better place for one or two generations ahead. At the same time, I want to say that conscious construction is already being manifested. Due to the fact that generations are changing, completely new ideas are emerging. For example, the approach to production has changed a lot. Now the idea of distributing components for the production of something, rather than the final product, is more widespread. In other words, production is moving to the local level, and thus the finished product moves less around the world.

What we need to think about is that everyone has a platform to inspire each other, discuss problems, and thus come up with joint solutions. At the BlackRock investment fund, the leaders also believe that this is important, because in this way we can more effectively approach any issue.

– How does conscious construction manifest itself in your life? What does it give you as an ordinary citizen?

 – There are many places in my life where conscious construction manifests itself. Of course, this is mainly due to the way in which completely different groups of people are taken into account when designing in the current conditions.

Probably, any architect, when answering this question, will unconsciously focus on what is already good, what has already been applied. But, of course, I must say that even in Denmark, even in London, in places where this topic is quite developed, there is still unconscious construction, that is, poor development directions, ineffective. There are no approaches that will allow us to create a better future.

I believe that the 100+ forum and the topic that is stated on it (Conscious Construction – Ed.) are very important. We need to put it on the action map and put it on public display so that these problems can be solved together.